Carefully sequenced statements by Obama administration officials in late January and February pushed back against Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea and other maritime disputes, taking Sino-American competition to a new stage. America’s measured resolve adds to circumstances that work against overall success in China’s coercive measures to advance influence and erode US leadership in Asia. In the short term, recent developments suggest continued muddled Chinese assertiveness and restraint, with American attentiveness and actions countering the former and encouraging the latter. Although respected specialists like Marvin Ott and others are more pessimistic in assessing regional dynamics, the evidence presented here shows effective US leadership curbing aggression and promoting stability.

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