Presidential Election

The First Debate

On April 13, the five leading presidential candidates participated in the first of six presidential debates scheduled to take place before the presidential election on May 9. During the two-and-a-half hour debate, candidates discussed issues related to politics, foreign policy, security, and economy. Many viewers criticized the debate organizers for 1) no live broadcasting, 2) having too many candidates, and 3) dealing with too many issues.¹ Some have even called for the upcoming debates to reduce the number of candidates.²

In terms of candidate performance, many observers gave high marks to Yoo Seong-min and Shim Sang-jung, the two least popular candidates.³ When each camp was asked to name the candidate with the best performance (excluding its own candidate), Yoo received three votes while Shim received two. Moon Jae-in, Ahn Cheol-soo, and Hong Jun-pyo did not receive a single vote.⁴

The Second Debate

In the second debate on April 19, the candidates had to address two broad sets of issues: North Korean nuclear problem and fair taxation. Moon and Ahn had the most airtime during cross-examination and rebuttal.⁵ The second debate received the most attention with 26.4% viewership rating, which is almost double that of the first debate.⁶

Upcoming Presidential Debates⁷

It is worth noting that the first two debate performances appear to have raised the support for Hong Jun-pyo but lowered the support for Ahn with the latest Gallup Korea poll suggesting that Ahn Cheol-soo’s rating dipped from 37% in April 11-13 to 30% in April 18-20.

Presidential Candidate Approval Rating^{8, 9}

 
Dealing with North Korea

Vice President Pence’s Visit

On April 16, U.S. Vice President Mike Pence visited the Republic of Korea during his tour of Asia. His visit came at a time when military tensions on the Korean Peninsula had been rising. During a joint-press conference with Acting President Hwang Kyo-ahn, he warned North Korea that the U.S. policy of “strategic patience is over,”¹⁰ and that the North should not test President Trump’s resolve.¹¹ The U.S. aircraft carrier, USS Carl Vinson, is expected to arrive near the peninsula on April 25 or so.¹²

Nine hours prior to the Vice President’s landing on Osan Air Base, the North had attempted a failed missile test.¹³ In response to Vice President Pence’s warnings, the North stated that it “will continue its missile tests on a weekly, monthly, and yearly basis.”¹⁴

In addition to his statements about North Korea, Vice President Pence grabbed headlines when he mentioned that the Trump Administration will “review” and “reform” the five-year old KOR-US FTA.¹⁵

KOSPI

Increasing tensions linked to North Korea has had a negative impact on the Korean stock exchange. The expected arrival of USS Carl Vinson and the US strike in Syria and Afghanistan have resulted in the KOSPI hitting a record low KRW 2,123 on April 11.¹⁶

Unit: KRW

Source: KOSPI

 
Party Approval Rating^{17, 18}