Foreword

 
The reshaping of the world order since the 2010s exhibits diverse characteristics that cannot be distilled into a single overarching theme, as it involves both competition among dominant powers and various responses by regional powers. While some define the current era as a “New Cold War,” others describe it as an unpredictable phase of “turbulence.” Alongside traditional security issues, there is also growing recognition of new and economic security challenges, such as climate change, infectious diseases, and the stability of supply chains. Over the past decade, the international order has shown a complex interplay of numerous factors, making its future trajectory increasingly difficult to predict.

Nonetheless, from any perspective on international affairs, certain common elements remain apparent: major powers either strive to maintain an international order centered on themselves or attempt to establish a new one; authoritative mechanisms for international coordination are lacking; and many countries face dilemmas in making complex, high-stakes decisions. It is therefore crucial to analyze these features systematically to understand both the current and emerging global landscape.

Since 2015, the Asan Institute for Policy Studies has selected overarching themes for its Asan International Security Outlook to examine developments in the international order, which can be challenging to interpret or evaluate. Past themes include: Strategic Distrust (2015), New Normal (2016), Reset? (2017), Illiberal International Order (2018), Korea’s Choice (2019), Neo Geopolitics (2020), Era of Chaos (2021), Rebuilding (2022), Complex Competition (2023), and Coalition Building (2024). While each theme highlights distinct keywords, together they reflect the Institute’s concerted efforts to adopt a multifaceted and comprehensive perspective on the evolving international order, its implications, and the strategies that individual countries and regions employ in response.

The 2025 theme, “Renewal,” continues this ongoing focus. Dominant powers such as the United States, China, and Russia have actively pursued coalition-building to shape an international order aligned with their respective ideals. This endeavor has led to the creation of new multilateral and minilateral cooperative frameworks, such as the Quad, AUKUS, and BRICS, alongside traditional bilateral and multilateral relationships. Meanwhile, competition among these dominant powers has become intertwined with regional interests, sparking conflicts and disputes—including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent war, the Israel-Hamas war, and tensions in the Taiwan Strait. At the same time, these powers have sought managed compromises to prevent their rivalries from escalating into a global conflict. A notable example is the agreement reached at the U.S.-China summit held in San Francisco in November 2023.

Reflecting on 2024, it is clear that none of the dominant powers achieved outcomes they found fully satisfactory. The United States continued its support for Ukraine yet could not secure a decisive advantage in the war, experienced friction with its longstanding ally Israel in the Middle East, and failed to outmaneuver China and Russia. Russia made some gains in its war against Ukraine despite strong resistance; however, the conflict further fueled anti-Russian sentiment throughout Europe. China, meanwhile, struggled to prevent Taiwan from edging closer to independence and faced challenges in positioning itself as an alternative force for a new international order—further complicated by a strained alliance with North Korea. Efforts by China and Russia to use the BRICS framework to court the Global South also failed to yield significant results.

Looking ahead to 2025, these dominant powers are expected to introduce new strategies and policies to address their challenges and reshape global politics. With the inauguration of the second Trump administration, the United States is likely to reaffirm the Make America Great Again (MAGA) agenda. In response, China is expected to implement countermeasures aimed at undermining U.S. global leadership and capitalizing on any resulting power vacuums. Russia will leverage its closer ties with North Korea—strengthened since 2024—to position itself as a key pillar in a multipolar international order. The theme of “Renewal” thus encapsulates the moves and interactions of these dominant powers, as well as other nations, during this pivotal period.

The strategic landscape in 2025 presents a wide range of questions and concerns. On the Korean Peninsula and throughout Northeast Asia, countless strategic calculations will intersect or clash, resulting in diverse outcomes. The second Trump administration in the United States is expected to emphasize “deal-making” within its alliances, while China may attempt to exploit South Korea as the “weak link” in ROK-U.S.-Japan security cooperation. Simultaneously, North Korea and Russia could use their strengthened ties to heighten nuclear threats against South Korea and expand their influence on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia. As these dynamics converge, South Korea’s security environment is likely to become even more complex and challenging.

This report reflects the Asan Institute’s comprehensive efforts to forecast the international security landscape in 2025 and to offer guidance on how South Korea can respond effectively to these developments. We hope that it will serve as a valuable resource for further analyses of the Korean Peninsula, Northeast Asia, and the broader international order in 2025. Lastly, I extend my sincere gratitude to the Asan Institute’s researchers and external contributors for their dedication in producing this publication.

Dr. YOON Young-kwan
Chairman, The Asan Institute for Policy Studies