Presidential Election and National Security

Moon Jae-in emerged as the Together Democratic Party’s presidential candidate with 57% of the votes, beating out Ahn Hee-jung (21.5%) and Lee Jae-myung (21.2%).¹ Moon’s victory was widely expected given that he maintained the highest approval rating among all candidates.

Moon’s biggest challenge will come from Ahn Cheol-soo, who won the People’s Party’s nomination on Apr 4. He commanded 75.01% of the votes, ahead of Sohn Hak-kyu (18.07%) and Park Joo-sun (6.92%).² Ahn’s approval rating has soared in the past two weeks with one recent Gallup poll showing Ahn behind Moon by only 3%p.

The two conservative parties, the Righteous Party and the Freedom Korea Party, elected Yoo Seong-min and Hong Jun-pyo, respectively. Yoo (62.9%) defeated Nam Kyung-pil (37.1%)³ while Hong (54.15%) was the overwhelming favorite over Kim Jin-tae (19.3%), Lee In-jae (14.9%) and Kim Gwan-yong (11.8%).⁴

The above four candidates will be joined by Shim Sang-jung from the Justice Party and Kim Jong-in, who recently left the TDP and announced that he will run as an independent. Many see Kim’s announcement as an effort to prevent Moon from becoming the next president.⁵

Presidential Candidate Approval Rating⁶

The decisive factor in this year’s election will be how the conservative voters will cast their vote in May. Will they coalesce around a single candidate or will they split their votes among two or three candidates? Which one(s)? Or will they decide to not vote at all?

With a month left until the election, candidates have begun to announce their campaign platform. See below for a snapshot of their official positions on foreign policy and national security.⁷

Dealing with North Korea
 
On Apr 5, two days before the U.S.-China Summit, North Korea launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) known as KN-15 into the East Sea.⁸ This was the fourth missile test in 2017. The Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs strongly condemned the act and warned that these tests would only lead to negative consequences for North Korea.⁹ Despite the strong rhetoric, many were expecting some kind of provocation from the North given the on-going ROK-U.S. joint military exercises and President Trump’s meeting with President Xi. Apr 15 also happens to be Kim Il-sung’s birthday.
 

Presidential Election and the Economy

President Park’s impeachment has elevated the issue of economic reform to the national stage. Presidential candidates have pledged to toughen corporate regulations in different ways (see below).¹⁰ The business community is concerned that these moves would jeopardize growth, which has slowed in recent months.¹¹

Park Geun-hye and Corruption
 
Former President Park Geun-hye was arrested on March 30. She is facing 13 criminal charges, including corruption. Park has denied these charges but she is likely to remain incarcerated and questioned until April 19th.¹²

The prosecutors are also investigating Lotte and SK.¹³ These cases are different from that of Samsung in that there were no fund transfers to Choi’s foundations. SK reportedly negotiated the amount but failed to make the transfer. Lotte was reported to have donated KRW 7 billion but the money was returned before Seoul Central Prosecutors’ investigation began last September. The case against these two companies are weaker than that of Samsung.¹⁴

Party Approval Rating^{15, 16}

Will you vote in the upcoming presidential election?¹⁷