The year 2021 is likely to be frustrating for the US-Japan alliance.¹ The return of a process-oriented, alliance-centered decision-maker to the White House has relieved alliance managers and supporters in both Washington and Tokyo. The more pointless irritants in the bilateral relationship will be removed. Business as usual can resume as national security bureaucrats in both countries will be able to do their jobs without fear of disruption or reversal by a random tweet or an off-the-cuff comment. Business as usual will be comforting but it will not be enough. Given an evolving regional security environment and a renewed focus in the new administration on bridging the ever-widening views at home about national power, purpose, and priorities, the United States and Japan should be working to modernize their alliance in new and important ways. Unfortunately, Japan is unlikely to be able to grasp that opportunity. The challenge for the United States is to work within those constraints while pushing Japan to go as far as possible.

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