China could get Taiwan in two weeks. Whether the US position is ambiguous or not, China will act. Japan needs the US to commit. Biden is continuing a much tougher stance toward China. It sees security and economics and technology intertwined. The Indo-Pacific focus and the Quad will stay. Yet big differences from Trump include a much more strategic framework and removal of contradictory and missing pieces, which are needed for a balancing coalition against China. The degree of coordination with allies and partners will be unprecedented. Engaging China will not be at the expense of confronting China in other areas. Trump was unpredictable to China, and China welcomes more consistency and balanced priorities despite its wary anticipation. Stability in the relationship is sought, as before. China approaches Japan when its ties to the US are bad. Japan welcomes this, but sees China’s threats as continuing. A key approach will be technology controls and better management of supply chains.

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