“American foreign policy on the Korean Peninsula in 2012 will be affected by domestic politics and potential leadership changes in the United States and Korea as well as developments in the region.
In American politics, there is strong public support for the alliance and bipartisan interest in building further on the strong alliance relationship. The more likely variable for change would come from the leadership change in Korea rather than in the U.S.
President Obama’s “pivot to Asia” will also be a strong factor in shaping America’s foreign policy on the Peninsula. The pivot coincides with the growth of a zero-sum nature to U.S.-China relations that will impact the entire region. South Korea must navigate carefully in these waters, staying close with its ally, but not offending a rising China.
In South Korea, the outcome of domestic politics and the 2012 elections could have implications for the KORUS FTA and the county’s approach to dealing with relations with North Korea. Developments and uncertainties coming out of North Korea could present challenges for domestic politics to overcome and will require all parties in both countries to continue close coordination of policy and build upon the strength of the alliance relationship.”