Impeachment Ruling

The Constitutional Court (CC) ruled by unanimous decision to uphold the impeachment of Park Geun-hye. It is worthwhile pointing out that two of the eight justices were appointed by the now-deposed former-president (Table 1).¹

Table 1 Justices of the Constitutional Court²

The court considered five charges leveled against the president.³ In the end, the court rejected the charges regarding improper dismissal, violation of free press, failure to protect citizen lives, and fair implementation of duty as public servant. But it did find significant overreach in executive authority by sharing confidential information with a private citizen and denying connection with this individual, who was personally involved in state affairs.

Table 2 Accused Charges and Ruling

On the charge of bribery, the court was silent. It remains to be seen how the ruling may influence the ongoing trial against Lee Jay-yong.
 

Public Response

All eyes and ears in South Korea were focused on the ruling this morning. Overall, the latest poll by Gallup Korea indicates that 77% of the Korean public supported the president’s impeachment. Only 18% opposed. The strongest opposition for the impeachment came from over 60-year-olds with 50% supporting the impeachment and 39% opposing. There were 24 open court floor seats, which fielded 19,000 applications.⁴ A large crowd of proponents and opponents gathered near the courthouse. 270 squadrons of 20,000 police officers and 360 buses were deployed in and around the court.⁵ The Seoul municipal police department issued the highest state of alert.

Approve/Disapprove Impeachment? (By Age)⁶

Do you approve/disapprove President Park’s impeachment? (By Region)⁷

Prosecution

The Special Prosecutors concluded the 70-day investigation and will now turn their attention to litigation.⁸ They indicted 30 people, including Lee Jay-yong, Kim Ki-chun and Cho Yun-sun. Investigation will continue for Woo Byung-woo, Choi Soon-sil and companies like Lotte, SK, and CJ.⁹

Former-President Park is likely to face a follow-up investigation by the prosecutors in the coming days. She will be the fourth president to be investigated by the prosecutors after Roh Tae-woo, Chun Doo-hwan and Roh Moo-hyun.¹⁰
 

What Next? Presidential Election

Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn will serve as the de facto president until the election. According to election laws, the next presidential election must take place within 60 days (May 9) of the Constitutional Court’s decision. Also, the election date must be announced by the acting president 50 days prior to election (Mar 20).

According to the latest poll, Moon Jae-in is firmly in control of the race for the Blue House. Prime Minister Hwang remains as the only conservative candidate in the top-5 although his rating might take a significant hit from the Constitutional Court’s decision.

Presidential Candidate Approval Ratings^{11, 12}

How do you evaluate Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn’s performance
as acting president?¹³

Dealing with North Korea

On Mar 6, North Korea launched four ballistic missiles, three of which flew about 1,000 km and entered the Japanese exclusive economic zone (EEZ).¹⁴ The missiles were later identified as Scud-ER (Extended Range).¹⁵

The missile test came as South Korea and the United States were conducting its annual Foal Eagle joint-military exercise, which began on Mar 1.¹⁶ South Korea also concluded the land-swap deal with the Lotte Group.¹⁷ Meanwhile the US military has also begun delivery of THAAD components as of March 6.

China has responded by urging the South Korean government to stop the deployment. Beijing has also promised a strong response.¹⁸ So far, the Chinese public has reacted negatively to Lotte products¹⁹ and travel to South Korea.²⁰ South Korean advertisements in China have also been targeted.²¹

Blue House National Security Chief Kim Kwan-jin was on the phone with the US National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster to reaffirm their commitments to THAAD.²² Defense Minister Han Min-koo also exchanged words with his US counterpart James Mattis to reaffirm US commitment to South Korea’s defense against North Korea.²³ Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn announced that “THAAD is absolutely necessary” and that Chinese retaliation was expected.²⁴