Author: Sarah Bessell, U.S. Institute of Peace

This is a time of renewed interest in disarmament, not just because of the situation in North Korea and Iran, but also because a certain point has been reached in the arms control process with New START. The panel on disarmament discussed and identified next steps beyond New START and how to move closer to achieving Global Zero. Getting to Global Zero will ultimately require a transformation in the atmosphere of international relations and can be broken down into four stages:

1. Twilight of bilateral nuclear arms control: The next stage beyond New START, wherein the international community will shift from bilateral to multilateral arms control.
2. Dawn of multilateral arms control: This will include fully comprehensive limits, involving the whole range of nuclear weapons not just strategic weapons.
3. End of the world levels of nuclear weapons: At this point, the number of nuclear weapons would be at a lowered level where, in the event of the breakout of nuclear war the damage, while significant, would be at lower levels and would not mean the “end of the world.”
4. Zero: This stage cannot be reached without an absolute transformation of the international relations environment. Maintaining this Zero stage in a way that countries would feel secure will be a real challenge.

Within the “twilight” stage, verification was discussed as one of the next steps that can be taken on the micro level. The Four Statesmen identified verification as an area where there is much meaningful work to be done, and it is important that robust verification systems are created so that countries are confident in their credibility. The international community will never move toward Zero unless all states have confidence in verification. There is also a need to begin the development of verification systems now as they require the longest lead time of activities. The development of a successful verification system will depend upon the inclusion of all stakeholders (both nuclear and non-nuclear weapons states), the rethinking of the classified nature of information, the determination of compliance and noncompliance, a systems-based approach, and the further exploration of nontraditional approaches.

There are two difficult issues in the arms control field that will need to be dealt with: theater missile defense in Europe (and how it fits into the next round of arms control negotiations) and multilateral strategic arms control that involves countries in addition to the U.S. and Russia. The United States and its European allies see theater missile defense as one potential way to counter the growing missile threat from Iran. However, the Russians are deeply concerned about any new system deployed in Europe undermining their own security. As a concept, disarmament had its origins in a bilateral world but in today’s multilateral world other countries must be brought on board. In terms of multilateral strategic arms control, Britain and France are two countries that have an interest and potential enhanced role.

* The views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Asan Institute for Policy Studies.
* The views expressed here are panel overviews of the Asan Plenum. They do not necessarily reflect the views of the author or the institutions they are affiliated with.