Afghanistan faces a multitude of problems and challenges and it is difficult to see how things could turn out well in the future. Corruption, societal grievances, a weak central government, bleak economic prospects, the Taliban conflict and rivalries amongst neighboring states are serious challenges to stability. A key factor determining the future of the region will be US politics and specifically what support will be given to the Afghan security forces. The other key factor is Pakistan’s behavior as it attempts to balance key interests and address fundamental challenges. On the balance the best realistic scenario that can be hoped for is that of a political compromise in which key power holders agree on a way to organize and strengthen the central Afghan state. But the road there will force the West to adopt an Afghan approach to political balancing and the question is if that is possible?