Asan North Korea Conference
September 25-26, 2013
North Korea: Long-term Scenarios

Scott Snyder, Council on Foreign Relations

Abstract/outline of presentation

With regard to prospects for North Korea’s long-term future, I assume that the central factors affecting North Korea’s long-term stability are the pace of change, the leadership’s efforts to manage consequences of change, and the short-term versus long-term consequences of those policy decisions. These decisions will influence potential stability or instability internal to North Korea and will determine whether change in North Korea occurs in a gradual or a sudden fashion.

Another factor likely to influence North Korea’s long-term future is the external environment, and the relative influence and level of competition between China and South Korea to determine the end state on the Korean peninsula. A potential competition for influence by North Korea’s immediate neighbors appears likely have only a marginal influence on North Korea’s internal policy direction, even as North Korea’s leadership may try to fan competition among external parties in its battle to maintain capacity to manage internal change. An assumed China-South Korea competition for influence in North Korea would be most relevant in the event of North Korean instability.

This analysis analyzes possible scenarios for North Korea’s long-term future by examining North Korea’s policy choices against its relative capacity to manage internal changes against short-term and long-term time frames. It also examines the relative influence of competition between China and South Korea as an influence on North Korea. A direct competition between South Korea and China would be a source of potentially severe tension in the event of North Korean instability.

The following tables illustrate the set of scenarios described above.