Nuclear Dominos in Northeast Asia

Session: Grand Ballroom 1
Date/Time: February 20, 2013 / 09:00-10:15

Moderator: John Park, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Speakers:

Jor-Shan Choi, Berkeley Nuclear Research Center
Kim Young Ho, Korea National Defense University
Li Hong, China Arms Control and Disarmament Association
Miles Pomper, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies

Rapporteur:

Press Release Brief

1. Will there be a nuclear domino after the latest DPRK test? The experts offered a simple and resounding answer, “No.”

2. Conflict between China and Japan could be a ‘game changer’ that changes Japanese demand for nuclear weapons.

3. Japan is the closest to going nuclear in East Asia right now because they have fissile material. South Korea and Taiwan have the technology, but they need more time to produce a nuclear weapon than Japan.

4. East Asian proliferation is not likely to happen in the near term. But in the long term – over maybe 10 to 20 years – it could happen.

5. For South Korea or Japan, nuclear weapons offer little security benefit. Would a nuclear deterrent help South Korea take Seoul out of hostage from the North Koreans? Not likely. The basic deterrence calculus is not going to change.